What Specter’s Defection Means

Republican ability to block the Obama agenda is crippled, at least until 2010.

My one rule of politics is that the future is never a straight line projection of the present. Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter’s unexpected decision to switch parties and run for re-election in 2010 as a Democrat proves the rule. Mr. Specter often votes for liberal Democratic initiatives and infuriates conservative Republicans. Still, his surprise defection was a crushing setback for the GOP, instantly reducing what limited power Republicans have in the Senate. The GOP’s ability to stop liberal legislation is now weakened if not eliminated in some instances.

Mr. Specter’s jump across the aisle significantly adds to the heavy Republican burden in Senate races next year. True, the political climate then may be more favorable for Republican gains; the economy probably won’t be booming and the president’s popularity won’t be sky-high. But there’s a problem: the map.

The states with Senate races in 2010 do not favor Republicans. They must defend 19 seats, six in states won handily by Barack Obama. In three — New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio — Democrats also have a built-in, blue-state edge. Indeed it was the strong Democratic advantage in Pennsylvania that prompted Mr. Specter’s switch. In two other states — Florida and North Carolina — Republican chances are no better than fair. Only in Iowa, with incumbent Chuck Grassley a shoo-in for re-election, are Republicans assured of holding on in Obamaland.

Losing one or two or three Senate seats on the heels of Mr. Specter’s departure would be devastating for Republicans. Already his defection has robbed them of their most reliable weapon in blocking President Obama’s liberal proposals. If the 60 Democrats (counting Mr. Specter and Al Franken) stick together, they can keep Republicans from getting the 41 votes for a successful filibuster.

For now, Republicans will need to recruit one or more Democratic dissenters to block the Obama agenda. This is difficult though not impossible. Several major bills are in serious trouble because a handful of Senate Democrats have misgivings. Example: card check, which would gut secret ballots in union organizing elections. Another example is “cap and trade” to limit carbon emissions. But should these measures fail this year or next, gains in the 2010 election would give Democrats a second chance to pass them.

Republicans do have takeover opportunities in the Senate, just not many. Connecticut’s Chris Dodd is the most assailable Democrat, having been exposed in “sweetheart” deals for a home mortgage and the sale of a house in Ireland. A recent poll gave former Republican congressman Rob Simmons a 16-point lead over Mr. Dodd.

In Illinois, the Blagojevich scandal and Democratic Sen. Roland Burris’s role in it have damaged Democrats. Mr. Burris faces a contested primary should he run in 2010 and, for a change, Republicans have a top-notch opponent, Rep. Mark Kirk, who hasn’t announced but appears ready to.

In Ohio, Rob Portman, a former House member and a Bush administration official, has a clear path to the Republican nomination, while two Democrats are headed for a bitter primary struggle. In Missouri, if former House Republican whip Roy Blunt wins the primary, he may be able to defeat Democrat Robin Carnahan, whose father was governor and mother a senator.

In Florida, a Senate bid by Gov. Charlie Crist may be a Republican necessity. Without him, Republicans have a 50-50 chance of keeping the Florida seat held by retiring Sen. Mel Martinez. With him, it’s 90-10. The good news for Republicans is Mr. Crist appears eager to run.

Two Democrats — Byron Dorgan in North Dakota and Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas — are running for re-election in overwhelmingly McCain states. But Sen. John Cornyn of Texas — head of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee — hasn’t persuaded Republican Gov. John Hoeven to run against Mr. Dorgan. Nor have overtures to former GOP presidential candidate Mike Huckabee to oppose Ms. Lincoln gotten anywhere. Mr. Dorgan and Ms. Lincoln are safe bets for re-election.

In Delaware, the state’s lone House member, Republican Mike Castle, would have a better-than-even chance of winning the open Democratic seat, even if Vice President Joe Biden’s son Beau is the Democratic candidate. Mr. Castle hasn’t decided to run. In Colorado, newly appointed Sen. Michael Bennet is vulnerable, but the big-name Republicans — ex-Sens. Bill Armstrong and Hank Brown and former governor Bill Owens — have retired from electoral politics. No obvious GOP candidate has emerged to fill the vacuum.

The same is true in New Hampshire, once a GOP stronghold. Incumbent Republican Judd Gregg is the best candidate to hold the Senate seat. But he is retiring.

Mr. Specter had been regarded by Mr. Cornyn’s team as the only Republican who could hold the Pennsylvania seat. Mr. Specter disagreed. Explaining his party switch yesterday, he said he didn’t think he could win re-election as a Republican. In a letter to Pennsylvania Republicans last month, Mr. Cornyn had defended Mr. Specter in crass political terms as “a vote for denying Harry Reid and the Democrats a filibuster-proof Senate.” Now Mr. Reid may have unfettered control of the Senate. Republicans face a tougher election in Pennsylvania with conservative Pat Toomey, who nearly defeated the liberal-leaning Mr. Specter in the 2004 primary, as the likely GOP nominee.

In Kentucky, two-term Sen. Jim Bunning is a certain loser in 2010, according to GOP leaders in Washington. They want him to defer to Secretary of State Trey Grayson, a rising star in Kentucky politics. But Mr. Bunning told me he is running. Mr. Grayson has said he won’t run unless Mr. Bunning retires. This is not a happy circumstance for Republicans, who can’t afford to lose Kentucky.

The last time Republicans had as few as 40 senators was following the 1976 election. Two years later, they won five seats. And in the 1980 election, with Ronald Reagan leading the ticket, they captured 12 seats and won a Senate majority. The Republican dream scenario is a repeat of 1980 in 2010. “We need to be prepared for a good political wave,” says Rob Jesmer, Mr. Cornyn’s top aide. “We need to set the table” with strong candidates and good issues.

But the political circumstances are different today. Thirty years ago, the vulnerable senators were liberal Democrats. In the 2010 election, Democrats will have structural advantages in organization, money, and friendly media they didn’t in 1980. And they’ll have a re-electable incumbent in Pennsylvania, Mr. Specter.

Still, there’s my rule. The political situation next year won’t be the same as now. If Republicans win two or three seats, their ability to defeat legislation may be restored. If they don’t, the liberal heyday will go on.

Mr. Barnes is executive editor of the Weekly Standard and a commentator on Fox News Channel.

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